Nature-adjusted GDP: A new vision made possible by large, open source geospatial datasets
Session Description
This session covered how large-scale open geospatial datasets could support a "nature-adjusted" reframing of GDP. Josh Adler opened on GDP's structural blind spot toward natural systems. Karl Burkart introduced Nature Data Lab's Global Safety Net platform (GSN3), which maps areas of importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services globally, and outlined "reGDP," a concept incorporating ecosystem service value into sovereign debt calculations, illustrated with a Bahamas case study. Lena then spoke on translating ecosystem service valuation from country level to corporate level, covering mispriced ecosystem benefits, restoration financing contracts, and governance models that give nature a formal stake in decision-making. The session closed with audience questions on data interoperability and translating research into financial decision-making tools.
Speakers
Karl Burkart, CEO, Nature Data Lab
Josh Adler, Founder, Ecologica
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Key Takeaways
GSN3 is an open-source platform mapping "areas of importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services" (AIBES) globally, combining multiple modelled data layers with a human-modification layer to estimate what land remains natural or semi-natural, down to country, state, and county level.
The "reGDP" concept proposes incorporating projected ecosystem service revenue (carbon, fisheries, ecotourism, etc.) into the growth term of a country's debt-to-GDP calculation, potentially allowing countries with strong natural assets to access lower borrowing rates.
A forthcoming paper models this for the Bahamas, using a newly mapped seagrass meadow (identified via shark-mounted cameras) to project ecosystem service revenue that could support debt restructuring.
A 2019 study on California's urban trees found that carbon sequestration accounted for only around 1% of their estimated $1 billion value, with roughly 85% attributed to property value uplift and 14% to stormwater capture and air filtration, illustrating how narrowly "nature value" is typically measured.
UK woodlands were cited as saving the NHS an estimated £2 billion a year in avoided health costs, a value not currently captured in any financial contract with landowners.
A distinction was raised between contracting for an ecosystem service itself (finite, subject to expiry) versus securing the underlying natural asset that produces it (which retains ongoing optionality).
Current data quality is uneven globally: roughly 44% of countries were cited as having no ecosystem service data at all, with data quality closely correlated to national wealth.
Several governance models for giving nature a formal stake in decision-making were referenced as already in use, including corporate environmental trusts, legal personhood for natural features, and a Rwandan example of bank accounts held on behalf of gorillas.
Interoperability of ecosystem service data and definitions was raised as a current gap limiting translation of nature tech data into financial decision-making tools.
